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Vztah mezi zadlužeností domácností a hospodářským cyklem ve vybraných evropských zemích
Oleinik, Aleksandr
The aim of the work is to identify the relationship between household in-debtedness and the economic cycle in selected countries. In the empirical part, the analysis of the period 1996Q1-2022Q4 is carried out, based on data obtained from the BIS (Bank for International Stettlements) and Eurostat. The selection of countries was carried out with the help of work C. Gräb-ner, P. Heimberg, J. Kapeller and B. Schütze, 2019, where the EU states are divided into 4 economic groups. The following were selected: Core (Germany, Belgium), economies with a significant financial sector (Luxembourg, Netherlands), periph-ery (Italy, France), catch-up economies (Poland, Czech Republic). Two crises occurred in the reporting period, financial (2008) and pandem-ic COVID-19 (2020), so the time series was additionally divided into two sections 1996Q1-2007Q4 and 2008Q1-2019Q4, in order to verify the impact of the 2008 crisis on the relationship between debt and the economic cycle. Correlation and vector autoregression with the extension of Granger causality were used for the analysis . It was found that at time t there is a very weak correlation between the economic cycle and household indebtedness . Granger causality shows that the relationship in most states is endogenous, i.e. household indebtedness and the economic cycle interact, but in some states one-sided Granger causality has been identified. In the case of Germany, household indebtedness is a leading indicator of the economic cycle in all the periods examined, whereas in Italy household in-debtedness is a leading indicator only for the whole period). Luxembourg was the only country where no Granger causality was found.
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The correlation between the automotive industry output cycle and the business cycle in the Czech Republic
Yin, Shiqi ; Jeřábek, Petr (advisor) ; Merrino, Serena (referee) ; Čech, František (referee)
This paper aims to investigate the correlation between the output cycle and the business cycle of the Czech Republic's core industry, the automotive industry. The paper begins by analysing the volatility of each variable, and finds that the trends of the automotive industry output cycle and the business cycle align, while the automotive industry output cycle keeps lagging behind the business cycle. Secondly, this paper adopts the VAR model to examine the relationship between the Czech automotive output and its macroeconomic indicators, using the real GDP and the Gross Value added (GVA) to represent the macroeconomic situation. The results show that there is a correlation between Czech automotive industry output and the macroeconomy, but the correlation is asymmetric, which means the automotive industry is more sensitive to macroeconomic shocks but has weaker impact on the macroeconomy. Finally, this paper also measures the correlation between the automotive industry and monetary policy (M2) and finds that the monetary policy shows strong stability and independence, which can affect the progress of the automotive industry, but no reverse effect has been observed.
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Development of Business Cycle Simulation Application: Creation of game logic and implementation of the effects of economic policies
KOLESNIK, Miroslav
This thesis is about programming the economic logic for a 2D videogame about using economic policies for management of the business cycle and implementing that logic in to the videogame. The theoretical part of this thesis introduces the reader to the concept of videogames, programming, and game development in Unity and in general. The practical part of this thesis describes the process of converting the theory behind the effect of economic policies and world events on the business cycle into C# code and the implementation of this code into the videogame as well as programming the rules of the game.
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Investice do akcií společností farmaceutického odvětví a hospodářský cyklus
Spáčilová, Eva
Spáčilová E., Investments in shares of companies in the pharmaceutical indus-try and business cycle. Bachelor thesis. Brno: Mendel University in Brno, 2020. The text describes the profitability of the pharmaceutical industry through the development of stock prices. The theoretical part describes the subjects of research and the situation on the market of pharmacology, the division of producers accord-ing to the type of production, their specifics. In the research part is made a technical and fundamental analysis of the balance of profitability of individual entities on the stock market, their comparison with each other and with the business cycle. Finally, according to the obtained results, investment recommendations are given.
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Misallocation of Human Capital: The Austrian Perspective
Skala, Jakub ; Lebovič, Michal (advisor) ; Bobková, Božena (referee)
Higher education is often considered as one of the safest and most profitable investments in human capital. There are, however, signals that this sector has been experiencing unsustainable economic boom in the United States. This study examines the ability of Austrian Business Cycle Theory to explain the possibility of such boom, i.e. to explain the potential systematic errors in the allocation of human capital. We find that respective allocation is driven by the similar market forces as the allocation of physical capital and hence, that it may fall victim to the same, or similar false market signals, thus creating the cycle of boom and bust. Credit expansion in the sector of student loans can be the trigger then. Furthermore, we study the actual development in this sector and find that empirical evidence provides many reasons to believe that there has actually been unsustainable boom i.e. an economic bubble in the sector of post-secondary education in the United States.
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What Drives the Aggregate Credit Risk: The Case of the Czech Republic
Málek, Jan ; Seidler, Jakub (advisor) ; Doležel, Pavel (referee)
There has been a long discussion about macroeconomic variables influencing the level of aggregate credit risk in the economy. While literature provides both empirical evidence and theoretical explana- tion of the influence of the business cycle on credit risk, the effect of other macroeconomic variables has not been explored sufficiently. In addition, recent literature suggests the existence of a latent risk factor behind aggregate credit risk, which is regularly interpreted as the latent default cycle. This thesis provides in its first part a discussion of potential aggregate credit risk drivers, which have been previously suggested in literature. We verify using a linear regression model whether the effect of these macroeconomic variables is also apparent in the Czech Republic. Results seem to be stable for both different model specifications and different clients segments and are in line with previous studies. The second part of this thesis explicitly models the latent factor that is assumed behind aggregate credit risk by adding an unobserved component to the already existing model constructed earlier in this thesis. The unobserved component can be estimated by applying Kalman filter. We subsequently discuss the sources of the latent component and whether it can be interpreted as the default cycle. The...
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Make your own luck: the wage gains from starting college in a bad economy
Bičáková, Alena ; Cortes, G. M. ; Mazza, J.
Using data for nearly 40 cohorts of American college graduates and exploiting regional variation in economic conditions, we show robust evidence of a positive relationship between the unemployment rate at the time of college enrollment and subsequent annual earnings, particularly for women. This positive relationship cannot be explained by selection into employment or by economic conditions at the time of graduation. Changes in major field of study account for only about 10% of the observed earnings gains. The results are consistent with intensified effort exerted by students who experience bad economic times at the beginning of their studies.
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Influence of the American economic crisis of 2007 on Czech economy
Gajdošová, Veronika ; Tichá, Milena (advisor) ; Samek, Tomáš (referee)
This diploma thesis focuses on financial crisis from 2007 and its impact on Czech economy. Special attention is given to four macroeconomic indicators in Czech Republic and their transformation during this crisis and after it. First part focuses on definition and description of characteristics and stages of business cycles, first in general and then specifically when talking about 2007's economic crisis. Subsequent practical part analyses specific economic repercussions stemming from the crisis, pointedly in macroeconomic indicators, state budget and mortgage market. In the final part of this thesis, the knowledge and findings about these areas, which accurately depict overall status of Czech economy during the crisis and after it are evaluated and commented on. This thesis may be used by humanities' teachers to illustrate the functioning of business cycles and their impacts on economies. KEYWORDS: Czech economy, business cycle, trade cycle, economic crisis, mortgage crisis, globalization
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Caught in the cycle: economic conditions at enrollment and labor market outcomes of college graduates
Bičáková, Alena ; Cortes, G. M. ; Mazza, J.
We find robust evidence that cohorts of graduates who enter college during worse economic\ntimes earn higher average wages than those who enter during better times. This difference is\nnot explained by differences in economic conditions at the time of college graduation, changes\nin _eld of study composition, or changes in selection into occupations or industries. Cohorts\nwho start college in bad times are not more positively selected based on their high-school\noutcomes, but they graduate with higher college grades, and earn higher wages conditional on\ntheir grades. Our results suggest that these cohorts exert more effort during their studies.
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